It is noticeable that one can assess the complex of events around the celebration of the 101st anniversary of the BPR (Belarusian People’s Republic), if we consider it from the point of view of social engineering.
Despite the fact that the 100th anniversary of the BPR was a jubilee one and was celebrated in a big way, the celebration of the 101st anniversary was a real impulse from the point of view of social engineering.
After analyzing the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the BPR, the SEA concluded: “The BPR becomes the point of creation of the anti-Russian Belarusian state idea.” A year later, unfortunately, we were convinced of the correctness of our forecast.
We conducted a comparative analysis of the main massages of the two BPR celebrations of 2018 and 2019. This comparison makes it possible to conclude that the campaign’s significant change has changed: from a purely nationalistic-humanitarian context about the need to protect the Belarusian language, the campaign turned into an anti-Russian one with clear political demands in the form of Belarus’s withdrawal from the CSTO (the Collective Security Treaty Organization ) and the Union State. A comparison of the meanings of the main protesters looks like this:
| The 100th anniversary of the BPR | The 101st anniversary of the BPR |
| “A national state is the most important value for every nation”, said Pavel Golubev | “As a deputy of the House of Representatives, I say that today we must unite so that the agreement on the Union State is canceled”, said Anna Kanopatskaya |
| “The only chance to preserve independence and take the destiny into our own hands is to make the power really popular. And that means – to return the right to choose to the citizens of Belarus ”, said Anatolius Lebedko | “We still have strategic military facilities of the Russian Federation – a foreign state. I consider and demand that the bases be withdrawn. Our goal is neutrality, and the CSTO does not bring us closer to this goal. You must demand from the state to withdraw from the CSTO and withdraw foreign military facilities”, said Nicholas Kozlov. |
| “It’s necessary to develop and implement concrete measures to ensure the state status of the Belarusian language at all levels of public life”, – the petition of the rally. | “We demand the withdrawal of Belarus from the CSTO and the Treaty on the Union State”, – the petition of the rally. |
Full quotes of the rally participants are given at the end.
Thus, we see that the meaning of the event has completely changed. From nationalistic it turned into anti-Russian. This is due to the lack of objective arguments of the Belarusian leadership in an economic dispute with Russia. Aware of the weakness of their position in the economic dispute, the leadership of Belarus decided to change the political denominator of the formula. If you show Russia that the alternative to Lukashenko isn’t just building a nationalist state, but a direct threat of withdrawing from the CSTO and the Union State Treaty, Russia will go to the arguments of the President of Belarus, and the preservation of the Union State will become a compromise, for which Russia will have to make economic concessions.
That is why the Belarusian authorities for the first time allowed to hold events related to the Belarusian People’s Republic. Moreover, there were no mass arrests, as in previous years. Speakers from the stands could insult the Russian Federation with impunity, calling it “Mordor”, accusing Belarus of occupation in Soviet times, demanding to close the military bases of the Russian Federation, denounce the treaty on the Union State, etc. Of the LOMs, only Dmitry Dashkevich was arrested for calling Lukashenko an “impostor”. Thus, the Belarusian authorities gave a clear hint to the opposition, what can and cannot be said. Thus, with the secret approval of the Belarusian secret services, all the anger of the opposition forces from “Batka” (father) suddenly switched to Russia.
In such a situation, he killed two birds with one stone. First, shifted the point of unification of the opposition from the bias of the “tyrant” to the “battle for independence from Russia.” Secondly, in negotiations with the Russian Federation, he will present himself as the sole guarantor of the preservation of the Union State.
For opposition such a move Lukashenko is also beneficial. “Legitimizing” their existence in the political field of the country, including on the street, they will be able to attract more supporters, which promises large budgets from western curators.
The State Department is also pleased: “It was managed to quickly and effortlessly open a new Overton’s window in the subject of hatred of the Russian Federation within its historical ally”. Moreover, a couple of years ago, openly demanding the withdrawal of Belarus from the CSTO or the Union State was unthinkable.
Lukashenko decided to play Yanukovych’s game: to strengthen his position in negotiations with the Russian Federation not by economic achievements, but by creating the “worst of evils”.
Full quotes of the leaders of the protest of 2018 and 2019.
The 100th anniversary of the BPR
According to the chairman of the BSDP (the Belarusian Social Democratic Party) (Gramada) (Assembly) Igor Borisov, two dreams of “our founding fathers” have now come true: “The first is Belarus isn’t part of Russia, the second is Belarus is independent. The third dream remains: for Belarus to become democratic. ”
Nobel Prize winner Svetlana Alexievich: “These days, like today, teach us the love of freedom, prepare us for it. But let’s not forget that freedom is a cruel thing that requires honor and courage, faith and dignity, discipline and nobility. Freedom needs to learn. We are writing the history of our freedom. ”
Professor, historian, ex-deputy of the Supreme Council, Valentin Golubev, in his speech noted that “the national state is the most important value for every nation.” Golubev is confident that the proclamation of the BNR was “the continuation of many predecessors in the field of the Belarusian people. “I can proudly say: our historians now show the historical roots of our state and its origins – from the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the BPR to the Republic of Belarus”, said the former deputy.
Deputy of the House of Representatives Elena Anisim said that March 25 is a holiday for each Belarusian. “Today, each of us can fully feel the atmosphere with which our political elite announced the creation of the BPR 100 years ago. They were moved by a sense of responsibility for the fate of their people. It unites us with them. Let this light fill all Belarusians with national pride and dignity”, said the deputy.
The archpriest of the Belarusian Orthodox Church, Sergiy Lepin, said: “The BPR leaders fought against the occupiers, demanded freedom, wanted to put an end to the division of lands with the predominantly Belarusian population between foreign states.”
The center-right coalition begins collecting signatures for giving March 25 the status of a public holiday, said the BCD co-Chair Vitaly Rymashevsky.
The chairman of the United Civil Party, Anatolius Lebedko, distributed to journalists a statement from the center-right coalition, which, in particular, says: “We still can’t say that the tests have ended for us. We face old threats and new challenges, both internal and external. The only chance to preserve independence and take the destiny into our own hands is to make the power really popular. And that means returning the right to choose to the citizens of Belarus. ”
The half-hour rally in Brest ended with the adoption of three resolutions. The protesters called on the citizens of Belarus, civil society and the authorities to strengthen the sovereignty and independence of the country, and also suggested that state bodies develop and implement specific measures to ensure the state status of the Belarusian language at all levels of public life.
The 101st anniversary of the BPR
Resolution of the rally:
The document was taken alternately by the head of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party) (Gramada) (Assembly) Igor Borisov, acting head of the United Civic Party Nikolai Kozlov, leader of the For Freedom movement Yury Gubarevich and co-chairman of the organizing committee for the creation of the Belarusian Christian Democracy party Olga Kovalkova.
“We demand guarantees of protection of property of citizens and private business. We demand the withdrawal of Belarus from the CSTO and the treaty on the Union State. We call on all those who cherish the independence of our country, who loves Belarus, to join the campaign “Our flag, our language, our independence”. Only together we will protect our Motherland, Mother Belarus. Together we will win ”, called the authors.
Independent media are a necessary part of an independent country, Chairman of the Belarusian Association of Journalists Andrei Bastunets said at the rally. “I consider the threat that on Belarusian television 60% of the programs are of Russian production,” he said.
Co-chairman of the organizing committee for the creation of the Belarusian Christian Democracy party Pavel Sevyarynets called on the Belarusians for unity, regardless of their political or other affiliation. According to him, the Kremlin is “already openly planning to swallow Belarus,” and the authorities are “selling independence in retail.” “The Kremlin and the regime are working to put our heads together, divide us, and at times they succeed”, he added.
The lower house of parliament could offer to hold a referendum on the cancellation of the treaty on the creation of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, said Deputy of the House of Representatives Anna Kanopatskaya, speaking at the rally: “I, as a deputy of the House of Representatives, say that today we must unite canceled, – said Kanopatskaya. – The House of Representatives may be the state body that can propose a referendum on the cancellation of the contract. Belarus is an independent state, and it should have normal relations both in the East and in the West. ”
The head of the “For Freedom” movement, Yuri Gubarevich, drew attention to “very difficult conditions” in which the BPR was proclaimed 101 years ago. In his opinion, the current leadership of the country “gives in independence and sovereignty.” Politician believes that Belarus does not need an alliance with Russia, the Russian ruble and the Federal Parliament.
Leader of the United Civil Party Nicholas Kozlov:
“We still have strategic military facilities of the Russian Federation – a foreign state. I consider and demand that the bases be withdrawn. Our goal is neutrality, and the CSTO does not bring us closer to this goal. You must demand from the state withdrawal from the CSTO and the withdrawal of foreign military facilities “, – said the politician.
According to the BCD organizing committee, the treaties on the establishment of the Union State and joining the CSTO “contradict the national interests of the Belarusian people, threaten the independence” of the country, and also pose a threat to the implementation of the “Crimean scenario” in Belarus. “We are in favor of Belarus remaining an independent non-aligned state,” the appeal says, which is planned to be sent to the authorities after the collection of signatures.
