This November for Poroshenko came out unsuccessful. A complete failure of the heating season – more than 300 problem settlements. The second problem is “euroblathers”, which organize traffic jams in both cities and on the border with Poland to attract attention. But the main failure Poroshenok in November – Tomos. Despite the hysteria in a telephone conversation with Metropolitan Onufriy and threats from the president, only one bishop of the UOC-MP (Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate) arrived at the event in the former house of Lenin. Thus, substituting Bartholomew, we had to postpone the meeting of the Synod to December. All this is an unfavorable information background for the start of a presidential campaign.

Therefore, it was decided to organize a provocation for the introduction of martial law, which gave Poroshenko many bonuses: a ban on protest actions, censorship in the media, redistribution of property of legal entities (a greed forced to include this item in the original version of the decree) and the possibility of postponing the presidential election. The key element of the game was a bloody provocation under the bridge and a “blitzkrieg” in the Rada, until everything came to its senses.

However, the rather professional actions of the Russian border guards and the cowardice of the Ukrainian sailors made it possible to avoid casualties. This, in turn, did not allow the degree of alarm of the Ukrainian political to be reduced to “reckless”, and the deputies blocked the parliament in the afternoon, demanding to change the terms of the decree. The presidential standard was taken out of the Rada, Merkel called, and Poroshenko had to give in to the requirements for revising the decree’s parameters. This situation pointedly showed that they didn’t want to see him at the post after March 2019.

Thus, he achieved only partial victory. Martial law has not been introduced in areas where Lavra are located, except Svyatogorsk, but the probability of its capture is small. In the Pochaev Lavra, defense detachments have already been organized, from among the believers in the ATO, therefore its capture without the MS (military situation) regime is a complex and possibly bloody task.

Thus, Poroshenko received only part of the desired, which means that the provocations continue.